Market Outlook
December 12, 2016
Market Cues
Domestic Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
Indian market is expected to open on a negative note tracking the SGX Nifty.
BSE Sensex
0.2
53
26,747
Extending the upward trend seen over the past several weeks, US markets moved
Nifty
0.2
15
8,262
mostly higher during trading on Friday. With the advance, all three of the major
Mid Cap
0.2
27
12,535
averages once again ended the session at record closing highs. The strength on
Small Cap
0.5
64
12,320
Wall Street reflected a continuation of the upward momentum seen following
Bankex
1.1
241
21,411
President-elect Donald Trump's surprise victory in last month's elections.
The majority of the European markets ended Friday's session with modest gains. The
Global Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
markets were locked in a sideways trend for much of the day, but took out the highs
Dow Jones
0.7
142
19,757
of the day in late trade following the positive open on Wall Street.
Nasdaq
0.5
27
5,444
Indian markets rose on Friday after the European Central Bank prolonged its bond-
FTSE
0.3
23
6,954
buying program by nine months to support a recovery. Gains remained somewhat
capped amid a fall in rupee from a nearly one-month high.
Nikkei
1.2
231
18,996
Hang Seng
(0.4)
(101)
22,761
News Analysis
Shanghai Com
0.5
18
3,233
NMDC net profit dips 5.6% to `771cr
Detailed analysis on Pg2
Advances / Declines
BSE
NSE
Investor’s Ready Reckoner
Advances
1,456
853
Declines
1,194
766
Key Domestic & Global Indicators
Unchanged
172
83
Stock Watch: Latest investment recommendations on 150+ stocks
Refer Pg5 onwards
Volumes (` Cr)
Top Picks
BSE
2,400
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Sector
Rating
(`)
(`)
(%)
NSE
16,858
Amara Raja Batt. Auto & Auto Ancill.
Buy
927
1,167
25.8
Alkem Laboratories Pharmaceuticals
Buy
1,675
1,989
18.7
Net Inflows (` Cr)
Net
Mtd
Ytd
HCL Tech
IT
Buy
801
1,000
24.8
Power Grid Corp. Power
Buy
185
223
20.8
FII
743
499
27,776
Navkar Corp.
Others
Buy
180
265
47.3
MFs
198
213
38,399
More Top Picks on Pg3
Top Gainers
Price (`)
Chg (%)
Key Upcoming Events
Previous
Consensus
Intellect
173
19.0
Date
Region
Event Description
Reading
Expectations
Ifci
27
16.4
Dec 12 India
Exports YoY%
9.59
--
Polaris
157
9.9
Dec 12 India
Imports YoY%
8.10
--
Dec 13 UK
CPI (YoY)
0.90
1.10
Suntv
518
7.8
Dec 13 US
Industrial Production
0.04
(0.20)
Coromandel
284
5.2
Dec 14 China
Industrial Production (YoY)
6.10
6.10
More Events on Pg4
Top Losers
Price (`)
Chg (%)
Mmtc
51
(6.4)
Infratel
358
(3.4)
Nationalum
65
(3.3)
Balkrisind
1,169
(2.7)
Bergepaint
220
(2.5)
As on December 09, 2016
Market Outlook
December 12, 2016
News Analysis
NMDC net profit dips 5.6% to `771cr
State-owned miner NMDC has reported a 5.63% decline in net profit at `771cr in
the quarter ending in September FY2017 as against `817cr in the corresponding
quarter last year.
The decline was mainly due to the increase in selling expenses including freight
outs to `127cr during Q2 FY17 from `19cr in the same quarter last year. Also, the
adjustment for changes in inventories for finished goods and work-in-progress had
a negative impact on the profit.
However, the company has seen a growth of 8.5% in revenues during the review
period from `1,603cr to `1,739cr, which includes `1,706cr from the iron ore
segment alone.
Economic and Political News
India can save $6bn through ethanol-blended fuel by 2021-22: Report
Govt gets `32,434cr in upfront payment from spectrum sale
Direct tax collection up 15.12%, indirect tax up 26.2% in April-November
In pre-demonetization month of October, IIP contracts 1.9%
Corporate News
Tata Motors suffered from legacy products, quality issues: Mistry
Airtel to expand payments bank pilots to 3 South India states
Demonetization took a toll on rural sales of FMCG cos: GCPL
SBI to launch `25,000 limit credit card soon
Market Outlook
December 12, 2016
Top Picks ★★★★★
Large Cap
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
To outpace battery industry growth due to better
Amara Raja Batteries
15,840
927
1,167
25.8
technological products leading to market share gains in
both the automotive OEM and replacement segments.
Strong growth in domestic business due to its leadership in
Alkem Laboratories
20,031
1,675
1,989
18.7
acute therapeutic segment. Alkem expects to launch more
products in USA, which bodes for its international business.
The stock is trading at attractive valuations and is factoring
HCL Tech
1,13,037
801
1,000
24.8
all the bad news.
Back on the growth trend; expect a long term growth of 14%
Infosys
2,26,789
987
1,249
26.5
to be a US$20bn in FY2020.
Strong order backlog and improvement in execution would
Larsen & Tourbo
1,26,888
1,361
1,634
20.0
trigger the growth for the L&T
One of the largest pharma companies with strong
international presence. It has a rich pipeline of ANDAs
Lupin
68,338
1,516
1,809
19.3
which is also one of the largest among the generic
companies.
Going forward, we expect the company to report strong
Power Grid Corporation
96,549
185
223
20.8
top-line CAGR of ~16% and bottom-line CAGR of ~19%
over FY16-18 on back of strong capitalization guidance
Source: Company, Angel Research
Mid Cap
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
We expect the company would report strong profitability
Asian Granito
639
212
351
65.3
owing to better product mix, higher B2C sales and
amalgamation synergy.
Among the top 4 players in the consumer durables segment.
Bajaj Electricals
2,229
221
274
24.1
Improved profitability backed by turn around in E&P
segment. Strong order book lends earnings visibility.
Favourable outlook for AC industry augurs well for Cooling
Blue Star
4,445
466
634
36.0
products business which is outgrowing the market. EMPPAC
division's is likely to turn around on improving economy
With a focus on the low and medium income (LMI)
Dewan Housing Finance
7,988
255
350
37.1
consumer segment, the company has increased its presence
in tier-II & III cities where the growth opportunity is immense.
Strong loan growth backed by diversified loan portfolio and
adequate CAR. ROE & ROA likely to remain decent as risk of
Equitas Holdings
5,374
160
235
46.6
dilution remains low. Attractive valuations considering
growth.
Economic recovery to have favourable impact on advertising
& circulation revenue growth. Further, the acquisition of a
Jagran Prakashan
5,646
173
225
30.3
radio business (Radio City) would also boost the company's
revenue growth.
Speedier execution and speedier sales, strong revenue
Mahindra Lifespace
1,485
362
522
44.2
visibilty in short-to-long run, attractive valuations
We expect the company to report strong growth on back of
healthy growth in domestic branded sales (owing to
Mirza International
1,012
84
107
27.2
aggressive ad spend and addition in the number of EBOs &
multi-brand outlets [MBOs]) and healthy export revenues.
Massive capacity expansion along with rail advantage at
Navkar Corporation
2,566
180
265
47.3
ICD as well CFS augurs well for the company.
Strong brands and distribution network would boost growth
Siyaram Silk Mills
1,161
1,239
1,605
29.6
going ahead. Stock currently trades at an inexpensive
valuation.
Market leadership in Hindi news genre and no. 2 viewership
ranking in English news genre, exit from the radio business,
TV Today Network
1,671
280
385
37.5
and anticipated growth in ad spends by corporate to benefit
the stock.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Market Outlook
December 12, 2016
Key Upcoming Events
Global economic events release calendar
Bloomberg Data
Date
Time
Country
Event Description
Unit
Period
Last Reported
Estimated
Dec 12, 2016
India
Exports YoY%
% Change
Nov
9.59
India
Imports YoY%
% Change
Nov
8.10
Dec 13, 2016
3:00 PM
UK
CPI (YoY)
% Change
Nov
0.90
1.10
7:45 PM
US
Industrial Production
% Nov
0.04
(0.20)
Dec 14, 2016
7:30 AM
China
Industrial Production (YoY)
% Change
Nov
6.10
6.10
3:00 PM
UK
Jobless claims change
% Change
Nov
9.80
6.00
US
Producer Price Index (mom)
% Change
Nov
0.40
12:00 PM
India Monthly Wholesale Prices YoY%
% Change
Nov
3.39
3.10
Dec 15, 2016
7:00 PM
US
Initial Jobless claims
Thousands
Dec 10
258.00
2:00 PM
Germany
PMI Services
Value Dec P
55.10
54.80
2:00 PM
Germany
PMI Manufacturing
Value Dec P
54.30
54.50
7:00 PM
US Consumer price index (mom)
% Change
Nov
0.40
0.20
5:30 PM
UK
BOE Announces rates
% Ratio
Dec 15
0.25
0.25
12:30 AM
US
FOMC rate decision
%
Dec 14
0.50
0.75
Dec 16, 2016
7:00 PM
US
Housing Starts
Thousands
Nov
1,323.00
1,230.00
3:30 PM Euro Zone
Euro-Zone CPI (YoY)
% Nov F
0.60
0.60
7:00 PM
US
Building permits
Thousands
Nov
1,260.00
1,243.00
Dec 21, 2016
8:30 PM Euro Zone Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence
Value Dec A
(6.10)
8:30 PM
US
Existing home sales
Million
Nov
5.60
Dec 22, 2016
7:00 PM
US
GDP Qoq (Annualised)
% Change 3Q T
3.20
3.30
Dec 23, 2016
3:00 PM
UK
GDP (YoY)
% Change 3Q F
2.30
8:30 PM
US
New home sales
Thousands
Nov
563.00
Dec 27, 2016
8:30 PM
US
Consumer ConfidenceS.A./ 1985=100
Dec
107.10
Jan 01, 2017
6:30 AM
China
PMI Manufacturing
Value
Dec
51.70
Jan 03, 2017
3:00 PM
UK
PMI Manufacturing
Value
Dec
53.40
7:00 PM
US
Change in Nonfarm payrolls
Thousands
Dec
178.00
Jan 06, 2017
7:00 PM
US
Unnemployment rate
% Dec
4.60
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Market Outlook
December 12, 2016
Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends
Exhibit 2: IIP trends
(%)
(%)
9.0
8.3
3.0
2.2
7.9
1.9
7.5
7.5
7.6
2.0
1.3
8.0
7.3
7.2
7.1
0.7
6.6
6.7
1.0
0.3
7.0
6.4
5.8
-
6.0
(1.0)
5.0
(0.9)
(0.7)
(2.0)
(1.3)
(1.6)
4.0
(3.0)
(2.5)
3.0
(4.0)
(3.4)
Source: CSO, Angel Research
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: Monthly CPI inflation trends
Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI
56.0
Mfg. PMI
Services PMI
(%)
7.0
54.0
6.1
5.6
5.7
5.8
5.8
6.0
5.4
5.5
5.3
5.1
52.0
4.8
5.0
4.4
4.2
50.0
4.0
48.0
3.0
46.0
2.0
1.0
44.0
-
42.0
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion
Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends
Exhibit 6: Key policy rates
(%)
Exports yoy growth
Imports yoy growth
(%)
Repo rate
Reverse Repo rate
CRR
15.0
7.00
10.0
6.50
5.0
6.00
0.0
(5.0)
5.50
(10.0)
5.00
(15.0)
4.50
(20.0)
4.00
(25.0)
3.50
(30.0)
(35.0)
3.00
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Source: RBI, Angel Research
Market Outlook
December 12, 2016
Global watch
Exhibit 1: Latest quarterly GDP Growth (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
(%)
8.0
6.7
5.3
6.0
5.0
0.7
4.3
4.0
3.2
2.3
1.6
1.5
2.0
1.1
1.1
-
(2.0)
(0.4)
(2.9)
(4.0)
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: 2016 GDP Growth projection by IMF (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
(%)
10.0
7.6
8.0
6.6
6.0
4.9
4.3
4.0
3.2
1.8
1.7
1.6
1.3
2.0
(0.8)
0.5
(3.3)
0.1
-
(2.0)
(4.0)
Source: IMF, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: One year forward P-E ratio across select developing and developed countries
(x)
20.0
18.0
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
-
Source: IMF, Angel Research
Market Outlook
December 12, 2016
Exhibit 4: Relative performance of indices across globe
Returns (%)
Country
Name of index
Closing price
1M
3M
1YR
Brazil
Bovespa
60,501
(5.7)
0.6
33.4
Russia
Micex
2,209
9.8
8.9
27.4
India
Nifty
8,262
(3.3)
(7.6)
5.1
China
Shanghai Composite
3,233
1.9
5.4
(8.6)
South Africa
Top 40
44,220
(0.6)
(4.5)
(0.7)
Mexico
Mexbol
46,913
(3.2)
(1.0)
11.7
Indonesia
LQ45
890
(3.4)
(1.8)
13.3
Malaysia
KLCI
1,641
(0.4)
(2.8)
(1.9)
Thailand
SET 50
954
0.9
2.9
9.4
USA
Dow Jones
19,757
7.8
9.2
14.4
UK
FTSE
6,954
0.6
3.8
18.4
Japan
Nikkei
18,996
10.6
11.5
(5.1)
Germany
DAX
11,204
5.2
6.0
10.5
France
CAC
4,764
4.9
7.3
3.0
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Stock Watch
December 12, 2016
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY17E FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
Agri / Agri Chemical
Rallis
Neutral
204
-
3,973
1,937
2,164
13.3
14.3
9.0
11.0
22.7
18.6
4.0
3.5
18.4
19.8
2.1
1.8
United Phosphorus
Neutral
696
-
35,266
15,176
17,604
18.5
18.5
37.4
44.6
18.6
15.6
3.7
3.0
21.4
21.2
2.4
2.1
Auto & Auto Ancillary
Ashok Leyland
Buy
80
111
22,625
22,407
26,022
10.6
10.6
5.2
6.4
15.2
12.4
3.4
2.9
23.6
24.7
1.1
0.9
Bajaj Auto
Neutral
2,720
-
78,695
25,093
27,891
19.5
19.2
143.9
162.5
18.9
16.7
5.3
4.6
30.3
29.4
2.9
2.5
Bharat Forge
Neutral
961
-
22,361
7,726
8,713
20.5
21.2
35.3
42.7
27.2
22.5
5.0
4.5
18.9
20.1
3.0
2.6
Eicher Motors
Neutral
22,844
-
62,048
16,583
20,447
17.5
18.0
598.0
745.2
38.2
30.7
13.1
9.9
41.2
38.3
3.6
2.8
Gabriel India
Buy
109
130
1,571
1,544
1,715
9.0
9.3
5.4
6.3
20.3
17.4
3.8
3.4
18.9
19.5
1.0
0.9
Hero Motocorp
Accumulate
3,281
3,541
65,520
30,958
34,139
15.7
15.7
193.6
208.3
17.0
15.8
6.6
5.5
34.2
30.5
2.0
1.8
Jamna Auto Industries Neutral
176
-
1,407
1,486
1,620
9.8
9.9
15.0
17.2
11.8
10.2
2.6
2.2
21.8
21.3
1.0
0.9
L G Balakrishnan & Bros Neutral
601
-
944
1,302
1,432
11.6
11.9
43.7
53.0
13.8
11.4
1.9
1.8
13.8
14.2
0.8
0.7
Mahindra and Mahindra Neutral
1,189
-
73,854
46,534
53,077
11.6
11.7
67.3
78.1
17.7
15.2
2.9
2.5
15.4
15.8
1.6
1.3
Maruti
Accumulate
5,236
6,006
158,163
68,057
82,958
15.8
15.5
212.1
261.2
24.7
20.1
4.9
4.1
19.8
20.3
2.0
1.6
Minda Industries
Neutral
318
-
2,519
2,728
3,042
9.0
9.1
68.2
86.2
4.7
3.7
1.1
0.8
23.8
24.3
1.0
0.8
Motherson Sumi
Neutral
322
-
45,217
45,896
53,687
7.8
8.3
13.0
16.1
24.7
20.0
8.0
6.4
34.7
35.4
1.1
0.9
Rane Brake Lining
Neutral
1,001
-
792
511
562
11.3
11.5
28.1
30.9
35.6
32.4
5.4
4.9
15.3
15.0
1.7
1.6
Setco Automotive
Neutral
37
-
496
741
837
13.0
13.0
15.2
17.0
2.4
2.2
0.4
0.4
15.8
16.3
1.1
1.0
Tata Motors
Neutral
464
-
133,981
300,209
338,549
8.9
8.4
42.7
54.3
10.9
8.6
1.7
1.5
15.6
17.2
0.6
0.5
TVS Motor
Neutral
363
-
17,246
13,390
15,948
6.9
7.1
12.8
16.5
28.5
21.9
7.1
5.6
26.3
27.2
1.3
1.1
Amara Raja Batteries
Buy
927
1,167
15,840
5,504
6,605
17.6
17.5
33.4
40.9
27.8
22.7
6.1
5.0
22.1
22.0
2.9
2.4
Exide Industries
Neutral
179
-
15,232
7,439
8,307
15.0
15.0
8.1
9.3
22.1
19.3
3.1
2.8
14.3
16.7
1.7
1.5
Apollo Tyres
Buy
197
235
10,043
12,877
14,504
14.3
13.9
21.4
23.0
9.2
8.6
1.4
1.2
16.4
15.2
0.9
0.9
Ceat
Accumulate
1,279
1,450
5,172
7,524
8,624
13.0
12.7
131.1
144.3
9.8
8.9
1.8
1.5
19.8
18.6
0.8
0.7
JK Tyres
Neutral
121
-
2,743
7,455
8,056
15.0
15.0
21.8
24.5
5.6
4.9
1.2
0.9
22.8
21.3
0.5
0.4
Swaraj Engines
Neutral
1,351
-
1,678
660
810
15.2
16.4
54.5
72.8
24.8
18.6
7.7
7.0
31.5
39.2
2.4
1.9
Subros
Neutral
170
-
1,017
1,488
1,681
11.7
11.9
6.4
7.2
26.5
23.7
2.8
2.5
10.8
11.4
0.9
0.8
Indag Rubber
Neutral
190
-
498
286
326
19.8
16.8
11.7
13.3
16.2
14.2
2.7
2.6
17.8
17.1
1.4
1.2
Capital Goods
ACE
Neutral
49
-
484
709
814
4.1
4.6
1.4
2.1
35.0
23.3
1.4
1.4
4.4
6.0
0.8
0.7
BEML
Neutral
928
-
3,864
3,451
4,055
6.3
9.2
31.4
57.9
29.6
16.0
1.8
1.6
6.3
10.9
1.2
1.0
Bharat Electronics
Neutral
1,509
-
33,695
8,137
9,169
16.8
17.2
58.7
62.5
25.7
24.1
4.0
3.5
44.6
46.3
3.1
2.8
Stock Watch
December 12, 2016
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
Capital Goods
Voltas
Buy
326
407
10,792
6,511
7,514
7.9
8.7
12.9
16.3
25.3
20.0
4.6
4.0
16.7
18.5
1.4
1.2
BGR Energy
Neutral
118
-
853
16,567
33,848
6.0
5.6
7.8
5.9
15.2
20.0
0.9
0.8
4.7
4.2
0.2
0.1
BHEL
Neutral
129
-
31,599
28,797
34,742
-
2.8
2.3
6.9
56.1
18.7
1.0
0.9
1.3
4.8
0.8
0.5
Blue Star
Buy
466
634
4,445
4,283
5,077
5.9
7.3
14.9
22.1
31.3
21.1
6.1
5.1
20.4
26.4
1.1
0.9
Crompton Greaves
Neutral
63
-
3,955
5,777
6,120
5.9
7.0
3.3
4.5
19.1
14.0
0.8
0.8
4.4
5.9
0.6
0.5
Greaves Cotton
Neutral
126
-
3,075
1,755
1,881
16.8
16.9
7.8
8.5
16.1
14.8
3.2
3.0
20.6
20.9
1.4
1.3
Inox Wind
Neutral
199
-
4,407
5,605
6,267
15.7
16.4
24.8
30.0
8.0
6.6
2.2
1.6
25.9
24.4
0.8
0.7
KEC International
Neutral
142
-
3,651
9,294
10,186
7.9
8.1
9.9
11.9
14.3
11.9
2.1
1.8
15.6
16.3
0.6
0.6
Thermax
Neutral
823
-
9,811
5,421
5,940
7.3
7.3
25.7
30.2
32.0
27.3
3.9
3.5
12.2
13.1
1.7
1.6
VATech Wabag
Buy
491
681
2,676
3,136
3,845
8.9
9.1
26.0
35.9
18.9
13.7
2.4
2.0
13.4
15.9
0.8
0.6
Cement
ACC
Neutral
1,381
-
25,930
11,225
13,172
13.2
16.9
44.5
75.5
31.0
18.3
2.9
2.7
11.2
14.2
2.3
2.0
Ambuja Cements
Neutral
216
-
42,900
9,350
10,979
18.2
22.5
5.8
9.5
37.3
22.7
3.1
2.8
10.2
12.5
4.6
3.9
India Cements
Neutral
117
-
3,599
4,364
4,997
18.5
19.2
7.9
11.3
14.8
10.4
1.1
1.0
8.0
8.5
1.6
1.4
JK Cement
Neutral
742
-
5,188
4,398
5,173
15.5
17.5
31.2
55.5
23.8
13.4
2.9
2.5
12.0
15.5
1.7
1.4
J K Lakshmi Cement
Buy
379
565
4,458
2,913
3,412
14.5
19.5
7.5
22.5
50.5
16.8
3.1
2.6
12.5
18.0
2.1
1.8
Orient Cement
Buy
134
215
2,753
2,114
2,558
18.5
20.5
8.1
11.3
16.6
11.9
2.4
2.1
9.0
14.0
1.9
1.5
UltraTech Cement
Neutral
3,576
-
98,142
25,768
30,385
21.0
23.5
111.0
160.0
32.2
22.4
4.1
3.6
13.5
15.8
3.9
3.2
Construction
ITNL
Neutral
106
-
3,487
8,946
10,017
31.0
31.6
8.1
9.1
13.1
11.7
0.5
0.5
4.2
5.0
3.7
3.5
KNR Constructions
Neutral
796
-
2,238
1,385
1,673
14.7
14.0
41.2
48.5
19.3
16.4
3.6
3.1
14.9
15.2
1.7
1.4
Larsen & Toubro
Buy
1,361
1,634
126,888
111,017
124,908
11.0
11.0
61.1
66.7
22.3
20.4
2.7
2.5
13.1
12.9
2.2
2.0
Gujarat Pipavav Port
Neutral
139
-
6,705
705
788
52.2
51.7
5.0
5.6
27.7
24.8
2.7
2.5
11.2
11.2
9.2
7.7
Nagarjuna Const.
Neutral
81
-
4,503
8,842
9,775
9.1
8.8
5.3
6.4
15.3
12.7
1.2
1.1
8.2
9.1
0.7
0.6
PNC Infratech
Buy
106
143
2,710
2,350
2,904
13.1
13.2
9.0
8.8
11.7
12.0
0.4
0.4
15.9
13.9
1.3
1.0
Simplex Infra
Neutral
291
-
1,440
6,829
7,954
10.5
10.5
31.4
37.4
9.3
7.8
1.0
0.9
9.9
13.4
0.6
0.5
Power Mech Projects
Neutral
465
-
685
1,801
2,219
12.7
14.6
72.1
113.9
6.5
4.1
1.2
1.0
16.8
11.9
0.4
0.3
Sadbhav Engineering
Accumulate
273
298
4,679
3,598
4,140
10.3
10.6
9.0
11.9
30.3
22.9
3.2
2.8
9.9
11.9
1.6
1.4
NBCC
Neutral
233
-
14,004
7,428
9,549
7.9
8.6
8.2
11.0
28.5
21.2
1.4
1.1
28.2
28.7
1.6
1.2
MEP Infra
Neutral
35
-
575
1,877
1,943
30.6
29.8
3.0
4.2
11.8
8.4
5.7
3.8
0.6
0.6
1.7
1.5
SIPL
Neutral
90
-
3,165
1,036
1,252
65.5
66.2
(8.4)
(5.6)
3.4
3.8
(22.8)
(15.9)
11.3
9.4
Stock Watch
December 12, 2016
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
Construction
Engineers India
Neutral
306
-
10,320
1,725
1,935
16.0
19.1
11.4
13.9
26.9
22.0
3.7
3.6
13.4
15.3
4.9
4.4
Financials
Axis Bank
Buy
456
630
108,908
46,932
53,575
3.5
3.4
32.4
44.6
14.1
10.2
1.8
1.6
13.6
16.5
-
-
Bank of Baroda
Neutral
162
-
37,350
19,980
23,178
1.8
1.8
11.5
17.3
14.1
9.4
1.6
1.3
8.3
10.1
-
-
Canara Bank
Neutral
316
-
17,140
15,225
16,836
1.8
1.8
14.5
28.0
21.8
11.3
1.5
1.2
5.8
8.5
-
-
Dewan Housing Finance Buy
255
350
7,988
2,225
2,688
2.9
2.9
29.7
34.6
8.6
7.4
1.4
1.2
16.1
16.8
-
-
Equitas Holdings
Buy
160
235
5,374
939
1,281
11.7
11.5
5.8
8.2
27.6
19.5
2.4
2.1
10.9
11.5
-
-
Federal Bank
Neutral
71
-
12,216
9,353
10,623
2.9
2.9
4.4
5.8
16.2
12.3
1.6
1.4
9.5
11.0
-
-
HDFC
Neutral
1,267
-
200,324
11,475
13,450
3.4
3.4
45.3
52.5
28.0
24.1
5.4
4.8
20.2
20.5
-
-
HDFC Bank
Accumulate
1,198
1,350
303,328
46,097
55,433
4.5
4.5
58.4
68.0
20.5
17.6
3.6
3.0
18.8
18.6
-
-
ICICI Bank
Buy
268
315
156,157
42,800
44,686
3.1
3.3
18.0
21.9
14.9
12.3
2.0
1.9
11.1
12.3
-
-
Lakshmi Vilas Bank
Buy
146
174
2,622
3,339
3,799
2.7
2.8
11.0
14.0
13.3
10.4
1.4
1.3
11.2
12.7
-
-
LIC Housing Finance
Accumulate
568
630
28,685
3,712
4,293
2.6
2.5
39.0
46.0
14.6
12.4
2.7
2.3
19.9
20.1
-
-
Punjab Natl.Bank
Neutral
135
-
28,770
23,532
23,595
2.3
2.4
6.8
12.6
19.9
10.7
3.1
2.2
3.3
6.5
-
-
RBL Bank
Neutral
352
-
13,001
1,783
2,309
2.6
2.6
12.7
16.4
27.7
21.4
3.0
2.7
12.8
13.3
-
-
South Ind.Bank
Neutral
22
-
2,923
6,435
7,578
2.5
2.5
2.7
3.1
8.0
7.0
1.0
0.9
10.1
11.2
-
-
St Bk of India
Neutral
266
-
206,490
88,650
98,335
2.6
2.6
13.5
18.8
19.7
14.2
1.9
1.6
7.0
8.5
-
-
Union Bank
Neutral
144
-
9,916
13,450
14,925
2.3
2.3
25.5
34.5
5.7
4.2
0.8
0.7
7.5
10.2
-
-
Yes Bank
Neutral
1,219
-
51,305
8,978
11,281
3.3
3.4
74.0
90.0
16.5
13.5
3.1
2.7
17.0
17.2
-
-
FMCG
Asian Paints
Neutral
942
-
90,323
17,128
18,978
16.8
16.4
19.1
20.7
49.3
45.5
17.2
16.2
34.8
35.5
5.2
4.7
Britannia
Buy
3,036
3,626
36,428
9,594
11,011
14.6
14.9
80.3
94.0
37.8
32.3
15.6
12.0
41.2
-
3.7
3.1
Colgate
Accumulate
922
995
25,066
4,605
5,149
23.4
23.4
23.8
26.9
38.7
34.3
21.4
16.8
64.8
66.8
5.4
4.8
Dabur India
Accumulate
280
304
49,274
8,315
9,405
19.8
20.7
8.1
9.2
34.6
30.5
9.6
8.0
31.6
31.0
5.6
4.9
GlaxoSmith Con*
Neutral
5,060
-
21,280
4,350
4,823
21.2
21.4
179.2
196.5
28.2
25.8
7.5
6.4
27.1
26.8
4.3
3.8
Godrej Consumer
Neutral
1,475
-
50,213
10,235
11,428
18.4
18.6
41.1
44.2
35.9
33.4
8.0
6.7
24.9
24.8
5.0
4.4
HUL
Neutral
845
-
182,836
35,252
38,495
17.8
17.8
20.7
22.4
40.9
37.7
39.1
33.5
95.6
88.9
5.0
4.6
ITC
Buy
236
284
284,630
40,059
44,439
38.3
39.2
9.0
10.1
26.3
23.3
7.3
6.4
27.8
27.5
6.6
5.9
Marico
Buy
254
300
32,712
6,430
7,349
18.8
19.5
6.4
7.7
39.6
32.9
12.0
10.1
33.2
32.5
4.9
4.2
Nestle*
Neutral
6,369
-
61,412
10,073
11,807
20.7
21.5
124.8
154.2
51.0
41.3
21.0
18.8
34.8
36.7
5.9
5.0
Tata Global
Neutral
124
-
7,820
8,675
9,088
9.8
9.8
7.4
8.2
16.7
15.1
1.9
1.8
7.9
8.1
0.8
0.8
Stock Watch
December 12, 2016
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY17E FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FMCG
Procter & Gamble
Accumulate
6,717
7,369
21,805
2,939
3,342
23.2
23.0
146.2
163.7
46.0
41.0
102.9
98.6
25.3
23.5
7.0
6.0
Hygiene
IT
HCL Tech^
Buy
801
1,000
113,037
49,242
57,168
20.5
20.5
55.7
64.1
14.4
12.5
2.9
2.2
20.3
17.9
2.2
1.7
Infosys
Buy
987
1,249
226,789
68,350
77,326
27.0
27.0
62.5
69.4
15.8
14.2
3.4
3.1
21.3
21.6
2.8
2.4
TCS
Buy
2,193
2,620
432,204
119,025
133,308
27.6
27.6
131.2
145.5
16.7
15.1
5.4
5.0
32.4
33.1
3.4
3.0
Tech Mahindra
Buy
472
600
45,837
29,673
32,937
15.5
17.0
32.8
39.9
14.4
11.8
2.8
2.5
19.6
20.7
1.3
1.1
Wipro
Buy
459
590
111,497
55,440
60,430
18.1
18.1
35.9
39.9
12.8
11.5
2.3
2.1
19.0
19.3
1.7
1.6
Media
D B Corp
Neutral
356
-
6,542
2,297
2,590
27.4
28.2
21.0
23.4
17.0
15.2
4.0
3.4
23.7
23.1
2.6
2.3
HT Media
Neutral
73
-
1,706
2,693
2,991
12.6
12.9
7.9
9.0
9.3
8.1
0.8
0.7
7.8
8.3
0.2
0.1
Jagran Prakashan
Buy
173
225
5,646
2,355
2,635
28.0
28.0
10.8
12.5
16.0
13.8
3.5
3.0
21.7
21.7
2.4
2.1
Sun TV Network
Neutral
518
-
20,398
2,850
3,265
70.1
71.0
26.2
30.4
19.8
17.0
5.1
4.5
24.3
25.6
6.8
5.8
Hindustan Media
Neutral
260
-
1,906
1,016
1,138
24.3
25.2
27.3
30.1
9.5
8.6
1.8
1.6
16.2
15.8
1.2
1.0
Ventures
TV Today Network
Buy
280
385
1,671
637
743
27.5
27.5
18.4
21.4
15.2
13.1
2.7
2.3
17.4
17.2
2.2
1.8
Metals & Mining
Coal India
Neutral
307
-
194,039
84,638
94,297
21.4
22.3
24.5
27.1
12.5
11.3
5.2
5.0
42.6
46.0
1.8
1.6
Hind. Zinc
Neutral
281
-
118,858
14,252
18,465
55.9
48.3
15.8
21.5
17.8
13.1
2.9
2.5
17.0
20.7
8.3
6.4
Hindalco
Neutral
182
-
37,490
107,899
112,095
7.4
8.2
9.2
13.0
19.7
14.0
1.0
0.9
4.8
6.6
0.9
0.8
JSW Steel
Neutral
1,646
-
39,797
53,201
58,779
16.1
16.2
130.6
153.7
12.6
10.7
1.7
1.5
14.0
14.4
1.5
1.3
NMDC
Neutral
127
-
40,039
6,643
7,284
44.4
47.7
7.1
7.7
17.8
16.4
1.6
1.5
8.8
9.2
3.8
3.4
SAIL
Neutral
55
-
22,777
47,528
53,738
(0.7)
2.1
(1.9)
2.6
21.2
0.6
0.6
(1.6)
3.9
1.3
1.2
Vedanta
Neutral
245
-
72,768
71,744
81,944
19.2
21.7
13.4
20.1
18.3
12.2
1.6
1.4
8.4
11.3
1.4
1.1
Tata Steel
Neutral
430
-
41,791
121,374
121,856
7.2
8.4
18.6
34.3
23.1
12.6
1.4
1.3
6.1
10.1
1.0
1.0
Oil & Gas
Cairn India
Neutral
264
-
49,562
9,127
10,632
4.3
20.6
8.8
11.7
30.0
22.6
1.0
0.9
3.3
4.2
6.9
5.7
GAIL
Neutral
429
-
54,424
56,220
65,198
9.3
10.1
27.1
33.3
15.8
12.9
1.5
1.4
9.3
10.7
1.2
1.0
ONGC
Neutral
307
-
262,568
137,222
152,563
15.0
21.8
19.5
24.1
15.7
12.7
1.4
1.3
8.5
10.1
2.2
2.0
Indian Oil Corp
Neutral
303
-
146,940
373,359
428,656
5.9
5.5
54.0
59.3
5.6
5.1
0.9
0.8
16.0
15.6
0.5
0.5
Reliance Industries
Neutral
1,026
-
332,805
301,963
358,039
12.1
12.6
87.7
101.7
11.7
10.1
1.2
1.1
10.7
11.3
1.6
1.3
Pharmaceuticals
Alembic Pharma
Neutral
639
-
12,039
3,483
4,083
20.2
21.4
24.3
30.4
26.3
21.0
6.0
4.8
25.5
25.3
3.4
2.8
Alkem Laboratories Ltd
Buy
1,675
1,989
20,031
6,043
6,893
18.7
19.3
80.5
88.8
20.8
18.9
4.6
3.8
22.3
20.3
3.3
2.8
Aurobindo Pharma
Buy
723
877
42,314
15,720
18,078
23.7
23.7
41.4
47.3
17.5
15.3
4.5
3.6
29.6
26.1
2.9
2.5
Sanofi India*
Neutral
4,361
-
10,044
2,277
2,597
17.3
18.3
149.4
172.0
29.2
25.4
4.8
3.9
25.1
28.8
4.1
3.3
Stock Watch
December 12, 2016
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY17E FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
Pharmaceuticals
Cadila Healthcare
Neutral
391
-
40,044
10,429
12,318
22.6
22.0
16.9
19.2
23.1
20.4
5.9
4.7
28.5
25.7
3.8
3.1
Cipla
Sell
579
490
46,551
15,378
18,089
17.4
18.4
21.6
27.2
26.8
21.3
3.5
3.0
13.7
15.2
3.2
2.7
Dr Reddy's
Neutral
3,186
-
52,799
16,043
18,119
20.8
22.4
112.4
142.9
28.4
22.3
3.8
3.3
14.1
15.9
3.3
2.9
Dishman Pharma
Neutral
230
-
3,717
1,718
1,890
22.7
22.8
9.5
11.3
24.2
20.4
2.3
2.1
10.1
10.9
2.6
2.3
GSK Pharma*
Neutral
2,747
-
23,267
3,000
3,312
15.4
20.6
46.5
60.8
59.1
45.2
14.2
14.1
26.3
30.6
7.5
6.8
Indoco Remedies
Reduce
254
240
2,342
1,112
1,289
16.2
18.2
11.6
16.0
21.9
15.9
3.5
2.9
17.0
20.1
2.2
1.9
Ipca labs
Accumulate
544
613
6,864
3,303
3,799
15.3
15.3
17.3
19.7
31.5
27.6
2.7
2.5
9.1
9.4
2.2
1.9
Lupin
Buy
1,516
1,809
68,338
15,912
18,644
26.4
26.7
58.1
69.3
26.1
21.9
5.1
4.2
21.4
20.9
4.4
3.6
Sun Pharma
Buy
673
847
161,971
31,129
35,258
32.0
32.9
30.2
35.3
22.3
19.1
3.6
3.0
20.0
20.1
4.8
4.0
Power
Tata Power
Neutral
77
-
20,839
36,916
39,557
17.4
27.1
5.1
6.3
15.1
12.2
1.3
1.2
9.0
10.3
1.6
1.4
NTPC
Neutral
164
-
135,308
86,605
95,545
17.5
20.8
11.8
13.4
13.9
12.3
1.4
1.3
10.5
11.1
2.9
2.9
Power Grid
Buy
185
223
96,549
25,315
29,193
88.2
88.7
14.2
17.2
13.0
10.8
2.0
1.7
15.2
16.1
8.5
7.6
Real Estate
MLIFE
Buy
362
522
1,485
1,152
1,300
22.7
24.6
29.9
35.8
12.1
10.1
0.9
0.8
7.6
8.6
2.0
1.7
Telecom
Bharti Airtel
Neutral
331
-
132,314
105,086
114,808
34.5
34.7
12.2
16.4
27.1
20.2
1.8
1.7
6.8
8.4
2.2
1.9
Idea Cellular
Neutral
77
-
27,654
40,133
43,731
37.2
37.1
6.4
6.5
12.0
11.8
1.0
0.9
8.2
7.6
1.7
1.4
zOthers
Abbott India
Neutral
4,713
-
10,015
3,153
3,583
14.1
14.4
152.2
182.7
31.0
25.8
152.0
129.8
25.6
26.1
2.9
2.5
Bajaj Electricals
Buy
221
274
2,229
4,801
5,351
5.7
6.2
10.4
13.7
21.2
16.1
2.6
2.3
12.4
14.5
0.5
0.4
Finolex Cables
Neutral
421
-
6,438
2,883
3,115
12.0
12.1
14.2
18.6
29.6
22.6
15.8
13.8
15.8
14.6
1.9
1.7
Goodyear India*
Neutral
734
-
1,694
1,598
1,704
10.4
10.2
49.4
52.6
14.9
14.0
68.6
60.2
18.2
17.0
0.7
103.9
Hitachi
Neutral
1,404
-
3,818
2,081
2,433
8.8
8.9
33.4
39.9
42.0
35.2
33.9
28.3
22.1
21.4
1.8
1.5
Jyothy Laboratories
Neutral
369
-
6,704
1,440
2,052
11.5
13.0
8.5
10.0
43.4
36.9
10.5
9.7
18.6
19.3
4.9
3.4
Page Industries
Neutral
13,663
-
15,240
2,450
3,124
20.1
17.6
299.0
310.0
45.7
44.1
304.3
232.3
47.1
87.5
6.3
4.9
Relaxo Footwears
Neutral
410
-
4,916
2,085
2,469
9.2
8.2
7.6
8.0
54.2
51.5
21.0
17.9
17.9
18.8
2.4
2.1
Siyaram Silk Mills
Accumulate
1,239
1,605
1,161
1,733
1,948
11.6
11.7
96.6
114.7
12.8
10.8
2.0
1.7
15.3
15.7
0.9
0.8
Styrolution ABS India*
Neutral
591
-
1,039
1,440
1,537
9.2
9.0
40.6
42.6
14.6
13.9
37.2
33.8
12.3
11.6
0.7
0.6
TVS Srichakra
Neutral
3,538
-
2,709
2,304
2,614
13.7
13.8
231.1
266.6
15.3
13.3
397.5
313.0
33.9
29.3
1.2
1.0
HSIL
Neutral
282
-
2,040
2,384
2,515
15.8
16.3
15.3
19.4
18.4
14.5
18.3
15.8
7.8
9.3
1.0
0.9
Kirloskar Engines India
Neutral
326
-
4,713
2,554
2,800
9.9
10.0
10.5
12.1
31.0
26.9
13.0
12.3
10.7
11.7
1.5
1.3
Ltd
M M Forgings
Neutral
440
-
531
546
608
20.4
20.7
41.3
48.7
10.7
9.0
60.2
53.3
16.6
17.0
0.8
0.7
Stock Watch
December 12, 2016
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
zOthers
Banco Products (India) Neutral
187
-
1,337
1,353
1,471
12.3
12.4
14.5
16.3
12.9
11.5
17.8
16.0
14.5
14.6
0.9
99.3
Competent Automobiles Neutral
169
-
104
1,137
1,256
3.1
2.7
28.0
23.6
6.0
7.2
32.5
29.3
14.3
11.5
0.1
0.1
Nilkamal
Neutral
1,378
-
2,056
1,995
2,165
10.7
10.4
69.8
80.6
19.7
17.1
78.7
68.4
16.6
16.5
1.0
0.9
Visaka Industries
Neutral
194
-
308
1,051
1,138
10.3
10.4
21.0
23.1
9.2
8.4
24.9
23.3
9.0
9.2
0.6
0.5
Transport Corporation of
Neutral
170
-
1,303
2,671
2,911
8.5
8.8
13.9
15.7
12.3
10.9
1.7
1.5
13.7
13.8
0.6
0.5
India
Elecon Engineering
Neutral
61
-
681
1,482
1,660
13.7
14.5
3.9
5.8
15.6
10.5
3.7
3.4
7.8
10.9
0.8
0.7
Surya Roshni
Neutral
190
-
833
3,342
3,625
7.8
7.5
17.3
19.8
11.0
9.6
20.9
16.8
10.5
10.8
0.5
0.5
MT Educare
Neutral
125
-
499
366
417
17.7
18.2
9.4
10.8
13.4
11.6
3.0
2.6
22.2
22.3
1.3
1.1
Radico Khaitan
Buy
119
147
1,581
1,667
1,824
13.0
13.2
6.7
8.2
17.9
14.5
1.6
1.5
9.0
10.2
1.3
1.2
Garware Wall Ropes
Neutral
639
-
1,398
873
938
14.3
14.3
35.2
37.5
18.2
17.1
3.2
2.7
17.5
15.9
1.5
1.4
Wonderla Holidays
Neutral
334
-
1,885
287
355
38.0
40.0
11.3
14.2
29.5
23.5
4.2
3.7
21.4
23.9
6.3
5.1
Linc Pen & Plastics
Neutral
236
-
349
382
420
9.3
9.5
13.5
15.7
17.5
15.0
3.0
2.6
17.1
17.3
1.0
0.9
The Byke Hospitality
Neutral
166
-
665
287
384
20.5
20.5
7.6
10.7
21.8
15.5
4.6
3.7
20.7
23.5
2.3
1.7
Interglobe Aviation
Neutral
848
-
30,544
21,122
26,005
14.5
27.6
110.7
132.1
7.7
6.4
45.8
32.7
168.5
201.1
1.4
1.1
Coffee Day Enterprises
Neutral
205
-
4,216
2,964
3,260
20.5
21.2
4.7
8.0
-
25.6
2.4
2.2
5.5
8.5
1.8
1.6
Ltd
Navneet Education
Neutral
109
-
2,600
1,062
1,147
24.0
24.0
6.1
6.6
17.9
16.5
3.7
3.3
20.6
19.8
2.5
2.3
Navkar Corporation
Buy
180
265
2,566
369
561
42.9
42.3
7.2
11.5
24.9
15.6
1.8
1.6
7.4
10.5
8.0
5.2
UFO Moviez
Neutral
433
-
1,195
619
685
33.2
33.4
30.0
34.9
14.5
12.4
2.0
1.7
13.8
13.9
1.6
1.3
VRL Logistics
Neutral
268
-
2,444
1,902
2,119
16.7
16.6
14.6
16.8
18.4
15.9
4.0
3.5
21.9
22.2
1.4
1.2
Team Lease Serv.
Neutral
881
-
1,506
3,229
4,001
1.5
1.8
22.8
32.8
38.7
26.8
4.1
3.6
10.7
13.4
0.4
0.3
S H Kelkar & Co.
Neutral
300
-
4,333
1,036
1,160
15.1
15.0
6.1
7.2
49.1
41.7
5.2
4.8
10.7
11.5
4.1
3.6
Quick Heal
Neutral
274
-
1,921
408
495
27.3
27.0
7.7
8.8
35.4
31.2
3.3
3.3
9.3
10.6
3.9
3.2
Narayana Hrudaya
Neutral
339
-
6,921
1,873
2,166
11.5
11.7
2.6
4.0
128.0
85.4
7.9
7.1
6.1
8.3
3.8
3.3
Manpasand Bever.
Neutral
574
-
3,282
836
1,087
19.6
19.4
16.9
23.8
34.0
24.1
4.1
3.6
12.0
14.8
3.7
2.7
Parag Milk Foods
Neutral
268
-
2,254
1,919
2,231
9.3
9.6
9.5
12.9
28.4
20.7
4.4
3.6
15.5
17.5
1.3
1.1
Mirza International
Buy
84
107
1,012
987
1,106
18.0
18.0
6.5
7.6
12.9
11.1
2.1
1.8
15.9
15.7
1.2
1.1
Asian Granito
Buy
212
351
639
1,071
1,182
12.1
12.4
12.7
16.0
16.7
13.3
1.6
1.4
9.5
10.7
0.9
0.8
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on December 09, 2016
Market Outlook
December 12, 2016
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
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